Pot odds and implied odds — Brunson Poker Pro

Pot odds answer whether a call is break-even right now; implied odds answer what the rest of the hand is worth.

Pot odds are the one piece of arithmetic in No-Limit Texas Hold'em that has to be fast and has to be right. The question is narrow: given the size of the pot and the size of the bet, how often does a call need to end up winning in order to break even? Everything else at the table is judgement. This is not.

The calculation

A call needs to win with a frequency equal to the bet divided by the final pot including that call. It is worth practising until it takes no time at all, because the whole value of the number is that it is available before the decision rather than after it.

Worked exampleThe pot holds 60 and an opponent bets 20, making the pot 80. Calling 20 to win 80 means the call breaks even at 20 divided by 100, which is one time in five. If the hand is a flush draw with nine cards that improve it, the chance of hitting on the next card is roughly nine in forty-seven, close to one time in five and a quarter. The call is marginal on the card alone and needs something more to justify it.

Where implied odds come in

That something more is what happens after the draw arrives. If the flush completes and the opponent is likely to pay another substantial bet, the true price of the call was never just the 20 against the current pot; it was 20 against the current pot plus whatever the river is worth. That extra amount is what implied odds describe, and it is the reason drawing hands are far more valuable in deep-stacked cash games than in a tournament with fifteen big blinds behind.

The honest version of implied odds

Implied odds are also the most abused idea in the game, because they are an estimate rather than a calculation and the estimate is always tempting to inflate. Three conditions have to hold before they can be counted: the stacks behind have to be deep enough for a meaningful river bet to exist, the opponent has to be the kind of player who pays one, and the draw has to be disguised enough that its arrival does not shut the hand down. A third heart on a board with two hearts is visible to everyone, and a cautious opponent will simply check behind.

Reverse implied odds are the other side of the same coin and get far less attention. A hand that makes a second-best flush or a weak top pair can call cheaply on the flop and then lose a large pot on the river precisely because it improved. Second-best hands cost more money than folded ones ever do.