Short stack push-or-fold play

Below about fifteen big blinds the decision tree collapses to two branches, and that simplification is the whole advantage.

Study area: Tournament Play Sequence: week 6 of 7 Reading: about 7 minutes Notation: A-s = ace of spades, K-d = king of diamonds
Outline diagram of five community card positions: three flop cards, the turn and the river
Board template for replaying this topic street by street.

As a tournament stack falls, the range of sensible actions narrows. At a hundred big blinds a player can raise, call, three-bet, flat and float, and every one of those may be correct. At ten big blinds a standard raise commits so much of the stack that folding to a re-raise is no longer realistic, and the choice reduces to moving all in or folding. That reduction is not a loss of options. It is the last position in a tournament where the correct play can be known rather than estimated.

Why raising small stops working

Opening to two and a half big blinds from a ten big blind stack puts a quarter of the stack in before the flop while leaving too little behind to make any postflop decision meaningful. An opponent can re-raise all in with a wide range knowing that a fold surrenders a quarter of the stack. Moving all in immediately removes that leverage: there is nothing left to raise into.

What drives the shoving range

Approximate all-in shoving shapes by stack depth and seat, folded to the shover
Stack depthUnder the gunCutoffButtonSmall blind
15 big blindstop 8%top 15%top 25%top 32%
12 big blindstop 10%top 19%top 31%top 40%
10 big blindstop 12%top 23%top 38%top 48%
7 big blindstop 17%top 32%top 50%top 60%
5 big blindstop 24%top 44%top 64%top 75%

The table above gives rough shapes rather than exact charts. Three things move them. Stack depth widens the range as it shrinks, because the blinds are worth proportionally more. Position widens it as fewer players remain to act. And the payout structure narrows it near a pay jump, where surviving has value that the chips alone do not capture.

Calling a shove is a different question

A calling range is always tighter than a shoving range at the same depth, and the gap surprises people. Shoving wins the blinds whenever everyone folds, and that fold equity is a large part of the value. Calling has no fold equity at all: the hand has to be ahead when the cards turn over. A holding that is a comfortable shove from the button can be a clear fold facing a shove from the same seat.

Practising it away from the table

Push-or-fold is the part of tournament play that rewards rote work most directly, because the situations recur constantly and the correct answer does not depend on reading anybody. Drilling the shapes with flash cards until the decision is instant is worth more than any number of hands played without review.

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